In March 2016, the Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (key enterprise PMI) was 50.2, up from the previous month.0 percentage points (see Figure 1);Among the five weight indexes, the production index, the new order index, the raw material inventory index and the employee index rebounded, and only the delivery time index fell (see Figure 2).。
Figure 1 PMI trend chart of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from April 2011 to March 2016
The production index (volume of production) was 51.0, up 4 from the previous month.2 percentage points, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises in our province has recovered this month, and the production volume has increased from the previous month。
The new orders index (product orders) was 50.4, up 2 from the previous month.7 percentage points, indicating that orders from manufacturing enterprises in our province increased from the previous month。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.2, up from the previous month 1.0 percentage points, indicating that manufacturing enterprises in our province prepare materials for production this month, and raw material inventories increased from the previous month。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 50.1, up from the previous month 2.5 percentage points, the first time in nearly nine months on the line。
The supplier delivery time index is 48.9, down 3 from the previous month.0 percentage points, indicating that supplier deliveries accelerated from the previous month。
Figure 2 Trend chart of PMI sub-indices of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from April 2011 to March 2016
Table 1 Main sub-indexes of PMI of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from March 2015 to March 2016
In March 2016, the Guangdong electronics and information industry purchasing managers Index (PMI) was 50.4, up 2 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 51.5, up 2 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector is 50.6, up 0. 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry is 50.9, up 4 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 51.6, up 4 from the previous month.2 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 51.7, up 2 from the previous month.Six percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a special expert in the interpretation of the provincial PMI index and a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee, believes that the Guangdong manufacturing PMI index in March 2016 has the following characteristics: First, 8 of the 11 sub-indexes are on the rise, and the recovery rate is 1.0个至5.Between 0 percent，The rebound is relatively strong;Second, nine sub-indexes in February were below the line of expansion or contraction，In March, it was reduced to four;The third is the five weight indexes that directly affect the PMI index，Four key indicators - production, new orders, inventories of raw materials and employment - all rebounded strongly in February，Pull up the PMI index 2.0 percent, ending a streak of declines since September last year。Fourth, the PMI index of key industries such as machinery, petrochemical, automobile and pharmaceutical, as well as major industrial cities such as Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai and Huizhou, also rose above the line of growth and contraction.The above situation shows that the manufacturing enterprises in our province have come out of the influence of festive factors at the beginning of the year, and the production and purchase and sales activities have gradually become normal。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that purchasing volume of manufacturing enterprises picked up in March.0 percentage points, the import index rose by 2.The new orders and purchase price indexes also rose by 2 percent, respectively.7个和2.8 percentage points, which is consistent with the change direction of external factors such as the decline in import trade in our province has narrowed since the beginning of the year, industrial electricity consumption has rebounded, and international commodity price fluctuations have slowed down。It can be seen that the domestic and foreign procurement activities of raw materials and equipment of enterprises are becoming more active。
Chen Hongyu believes that at present, it is not easy to say that the manufacturing enterprises in our province have stabilized, in order to alleviate the downward pressure and constraints of the bottleneck, first, we must urgently implement the national and provincial governments on the real economy to reduce the cost of various policies, especially as soon as possible to reduce the tax burden of enterprises and merge the "five insurance and one fund" and other measures。The second is to further improve the service functions of the government, strive to build more inclusive enterprise service platforms, optimize the government's examination and approval service process, in order to reduce the institutional cost of enterprises。The third is to establish the government's guidance mechanism and concentrate resources to help traditional manufacturing enterprises with good market prospects make breakthroughs in the two aspects of "key technologies" and "sales and circulation"。The fourth is to give more support to the transformation of the manufacturing industry in the east and northwest of Guangdong, in order to reverse the recent downward trend。
(Contributed by Modern Logistics Research Institute of Guangdong Province, Operation Monitoring Division)