September 2016, Guangdong Province systemThe manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI for key enterprises) was 50.9, up 0. 0 from the previous month.By 8 percentage points (see chart 1);Among the five weight indexes, the production index, new order index, production and operation personnel index and raw material inventory index rose from the previous month, and the supplier delivery time index was flat from the previous month (see Figure 2).。
Figure 1 PMI trend chart of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from April 2011 to September 2016
The production index (volume of production) is 53.5, up 1 from last month.2 percentage points, has been on the line of growth or contraction for seven consecutive months, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises in our province is expanding。
The new orders index (product orders) was 53.1, up from the previous month.1 percentage point, the increase in the past three months is gradually expanding, indicating that the new order volume of the manufacturing industry in our province continues to increase。
The raw materials inventory index was 48.1, up 0 from the previous month.5 percentage points, indicating that the inventory of raw materials of manufacturing enterprises in our province decreased from the previous month, but the decline narrowed from the previous month。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 47.9, up 0. 0 from the previous month.2 percentage points, has been living under the line of growth and contraction for four consecutive months, indicating that the production and operation personnel of manufacturing enterprises in our province have continued to decrease, but the reduction has narrowed。
The supplier delivery time index is 47.8, unchanged from the previous month, has been below the line of growth and contraction for seven consecutive months, indicating that supplier delivery time is accelerating。
Figure 2 Trend chart of PMI sub-indices of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from April 2011 to September 2016
Table 1 Main sub-indexes of PMI of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from September 2015 to September 2016
In September 2016, the Guangdong electronics and information industry purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52.4, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Five percentage points;The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 48.4, down 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for food and beverage was 49.7, down 1 point from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 46.4, down 1 from the previous month.Five percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 48.9, down 1 from the previous month.6 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for auto manufacturing is 60.4, up 11 from the previous month.Five percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Provincial PMI index expert, professor Chen Hongyu of the Provincial Party School believes that the manufacturing PMI index of our province reached 50 in September.9, the seventh consecutive month above the line of expansion and contraction, and the highest point since July 2015。The sub-indicators of the provincial PMI index in September show that the characteristics of the manufacturing industry in our province are more significant in seeking progress and seeking quality in stability. First, among the five weight indexes that directly determine the PMI index, four rebounded from the previous month, and one remained flat. The most important production index and new order index increased significantly from the previous month.2个和1.1 percentage point, indicating that the domestic market demand of the manufacturing industry in our province is picking up in the adjustment, and the enterprises that have taken the lead in the transformation are making efforts to expand production。Second, the purchasing volume, new export orders and import orders index of enterprises in September were above the line of growth and contraction, and continued to maintain a steady and slightly increasing momentum。Third, in September, the production index of Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Huizhou and other industrial cities was as high as 55.4、55.0、54.1和57.7, the production index of the electronic information industry and the automobile manufacturing industry is as high as 55.6和69.2, support the overall situation of sustained industrial growth in our province。
Chen Hongyu pointed out，In September, our province's manufacturing industry also appeared some new noteworthy differentiation phenomenon，First, the six sub-indicators that fell from the previous month are all concentrated in the non-weighted index that does not directly determine the PMI index，Contrast with the overall rise of weight index;Second, the increase of enterprise import orders and new export orders index narrowed simultaneously，Reflects the company's judgment on the prospects of the international market and the more optimistic judgment on the domestic market contrast。Third, the PMI index of some key industrial cities on the west coast of the Pearl River Delta has been below the critical point for several consecutive months，The sharp rise in the automobile manufacturing PMI index in September contrasts with the contraction of pillar industries such as electrical machinery, textile and clothing, food and beverage, and petrochemical，It shows that the innovation driving force of manufacturing industry in our province needs to be strengthened，It is still difficult to translate research and development results into new production capacity。
Chen Hongyu believes that the new differentiation phenomenon in the manufacturing industry reflects the effectiveness of innovation drive and industrial transformation in our province, and reflects the inherent requirements of market differentiation;The abnormal excessive differentiation is the unbalanced and uncoordinated performance of industrial development and regional development。In order to maintain the development momentum of the manufacturing industry in our province to seek progress and quality in stability，第一，It is suggested to focus on the combination of science and technology and industry，We will promote innovation to achieve development，To build new research and development institutions, venture capital institutions and incubators, enterprise pilot test platform as our province's manufacturing industry to promote the combination of science and technology and industry "three starting points"。Second, it is suggested to strengthen the top-level design and long-term planning at the macro level, centralize financial funds at the provincial and municipal levels, and set up a large guiding mother fund for scientific and technological innovation in the manufacturing industry, so as to rapidly gather innovation capital and promote the development of new business formats and new business models in the manufacturing industry。Third, strive to drive innovation through the "to reduce the compensation" process, it is proposed to focus on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, improve the precision of "capacity reduction" and "cost reduction"。Formulate the measurement and assessment index system of "high-tech penetration rate" of various categories of enterprises in our province, and guide enterprises of various industries and sizes to strive towards the direction of science and technology。Fourth, it is recommended to strengthen the supervision and inspection of the completion of this year's "cost reduction" target, concentrate on ensuring that administrative zero fees, policy industrial funds, local government replacement bonds and other measures are landing, and focus on helping enterprises reduce institutional transaction costs, labor costs and financial costs。Strive to further reduce the social insurance costs, tax costs and labor costs of manufacturing enterprises next year。Fifth, stabilize the scale and growth rate of industrial investment and further improve the quality of investment。In view of the decline in the growth of light industry and the still high operating costs of small and medium-sized enterprises in our province, through the guidance of government funds, we should appropriately increase the investment in traditional advantageous industries, small and medium-sized enterprises, technological transformation and research and development of achievements。
(Contributed by Modern Logistics Research Institute of Guangdong Province, Operation Monitoring Division)