In April 2017, the Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (key enterprise PMI) was 51.2, down 0 from the previous month.4 percentage points (see chart 1);The five weight indexes "three down two up", that is, the production, orders, raw material inventory index fell, and the employee index and the supplier distribution time index rebounded。（见图2）。On the whole, the weight index this month is on the line of prosperity and contraction, continuing the balanced and stable trend of last month。
Figure 1 PMI trend chart of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from October 2012 to April 2017
The production index (volume of production) was 51.8, down 1 point from the previous month.Three percentage points。This month's production index fell from the previous month, but it is still on the line of growth and contraction, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises in our province tends to be stable。
The new orders index (product orders) was 51.1, down 0 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。The index of new orders since November has risen from 54.The high of 5 fell back to 51 each month.1, indicating a slowdown in the growth of orders for manufacturing companies。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.4, down 0 from the previous month.Six percentage points。Since January this year, the raw material inventory index of manufacturing enterprises has shown the characteristics of "index increases and decreases month by month", indicating that enterprises have a wait-and-see attitude toward market expectations。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 51.1, up 0 from the previous month.Six percentage points。After the end of eight months of decline, the employment index remained on the line of growth and contraction for three consecutive months, and showed a trend of picking up month by month, indicating that the employment situation of manufacturing enterprises improved。
The supplier delivery time index is 50.9, up 0. 0 from the previous month.9 percentage points, indicating that the supplier delivery time is longer than the previous month, and the distribution is busier。
Figure 2 Trend chart of PMI sub-indices of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from October 2012 to April 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of PMI of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from April 2016 to April 2017
In April 2017, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.6, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 52.3, down 0 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 51.5, up 0. 0 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 51.3, down 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 50.8, down 1 point from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 51.4, down 1 from the previous month.Five percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.2, down 0 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The Forest paper purchasing managers' Index (PMI) was 51.1, up 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Provincial PMI index expert, professor Chen Hongyu of the Provincial Party School pointed out that the manufacturing PMI index of our province was 51 in April.2, continue to show a steady expansion of the development trend。The five indices that determine the PMI index were all on the line for the second consecutive month。Among the 11 sub-indexes, the backlog of orders index fell slightly by 1 percentage point from the previous month.In addition to 4 percentage points, the remaining 10 indexes are also all on the line。The employment index, which has been well below the line between expansion and contraction for several years, has climbed every month for three months, to 51.1 of the best levels in recent years。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that as of April this year, Guangdong's PMI index has been on the line of growth and contraction for the 14th consecutive month, which is completely consistent with the recovery direction of the four major indicators of manufacturing electricity consumption, foreign trade import and export volume, high-tech industry growth rate and enterprise profit margin in the first quarter of our province。It shows that in the past few years, Guangdong has treated enterprises well, solved problems for enterprises, and boosted enterprise confidence is the right way, which should be further adhered to and improved。
Chen Hongyu believes that Guangdong's manufacturing industry has been higher than the growth and contraction line for 14 consecutive months, which is both a pressure and a challenge for Guangdong, requiring Guangdong to maintain a quantitative expansion trend for a long time, ignoring external environmental constraints and out of reality。Therefore, in the situation of continuous expansion, taking the appropriate initiative and moderate fine-tuning measures at the right time will help ensure that the PMI index is more quality and healthier。Chen Hongyu pointed out that 9 out of 11 items in the PMI index fell in April compared with the previous month, and the PMI index of 10 key industrial cities in the Pearl River Delta and East and northwest Guangdong also turned downward, indicating that Guangdong's manufacturing industry has paid more attention to the micro adjustment of industrial structure after a long period of expansion。It is suggested that the macro aspect grasp the general trend, take advantage of the trend, and strive to implement the various policies of "getting rid of the virtual to the real"。On the other hand, it is necessary to combine the recent micro adjustment of the manufacturing industry with the deepening of the supply-side structural reform to ensure that the effective demand and effective supply of the manufacturing industry are improved by means of reform。
(Contributed by Modern Logistics Research Institute of Guangdong Province, Operation Monitoring Division)