In May 2017, the Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (key enterprise PMI) was 50.9, down 0 from the previous month.3 percentage points (see chart 1);Among the five weighted indexes, production and new orders rebounded, while inventories, employees and delivery times all fell below the boom-bust line (see Figure 2).。Overall, the manufacturing PMI index continued to remain in the expansion range, and the industrial economy grew steadily on the whole;However, three indexes in the weight index returned to the line of growth and contraction, indicating that the uncertainty of the current industrial operation has increased。
Figure 1 PMI trend chart of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to May 2017
The production index (volume of production) is 52.7, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Nine percentage points。This month's production index rose from the previous month, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises in our province increased from the previous month。
The new orders index (product orders) was 51.8, up 0. 0 from the previous month.Seven percentage points。The recovery of the production index and new orders index this month supported the manufacturing PMI index to continue to be on the line of growth and contraction, maintaining the expansion trend。
The raw materials inventory index was 49.5, down 0 from the previous month.Nine percentage points。The raw material inventory index of manufacturing enterprises fell for 2 consecutive months, returning to the line of growth and contraction, indicating that the stock of raw materials of enterprises is declining。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 48.8, down 2 from the previous month.Three percentage points。Since February this year, the employment index has fallen sharply again after remaining at the line of growth and contraction for three consecutive months, indicating that the employment uncertainty of manufacturing enterprises has increased。
The supplier delivery time index is 49.8, down 1 point from the previous month.One percentage point。The supplier delivery time index has been oscillating around the boom-bust line this year, indicating that supplier delivery is relatively stable。
Figure 2 Trend chart of PMI sub-indices of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to May 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of PMI of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from May 2016 to May 2017
In May 2017, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.6, down 1 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 53.0, up 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 53.2, up 1 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 49.7, down 1 point from the previous month.6 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 50.2, down 0 from the previous month.6 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 51.0, down 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for pharmaceutical manufacturing is 50.7, down 0 from the previous month.Five percentage points;The Forest paper purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 48.0, down 3 from the previous month.One percentage point。
Expert interpretation
Provincial PMI index expert, professor Chen Hongyu of the Provincial Party School pointed out that in May, the provincial PMI index fell slightly from 0 last month.Three percentage points, 50.9。Among the five weight indexes that directly affect the PMI index, the raw material inventory index, the employee index and the supplier delivery time index fell from the previous month, and all fell below the line of expansion and contraction.All six other sub-indexes also fell。But the heavily-weighted production index and the new orders index each rose 0. 0 from the previous month.9个和0.7 percentage points, supporting the province's manufacturing industry to continue to maintain a steady expansion momentum, PMI index also for the 13th consecutive month on the line。
Chen Hongyu believes that after the provincial PMI index reached a cyclical peak in March this year, it began to show a differentiation trend of "micro adjustment" in April。Some enterprises with rapid transformation and strong market competitiveness have become representatives of new driving forces in the manufacturing industry, and have the ability to continue to expand production and undertake new orders。However, under the influence of a number of complex factors, especially international market factors, the existing orders index and new export orders index of manufacturing enterprises fell in May, and the employment index and the purchase price index fell significantly by 2.3个和3.6 percentage points, indicating that the transformation between the old and new momentum of the manufacturing industry in our province is in a state of stalemate, and the desire of some enterprises to purchase and employ workers has begun to weaken。In this regard, we should continue to maintain the stability of macro policies and prevent abnormal fluctuations in the prices of bulk raw materials from affecting the real economy。Efforts should be made to mobilize the consciousness and creativity of enterprises to cultivate and develop new technologies, new formats and new products, so as to continue the basic trend of stable and progressive manufacturing industry in our province as far as possible。
Chen Hongyu believes that there is little possibility of positive changes in external factors such as domestic and foreign markets in the near future, and the trend of internal differentiation and "micro adjustment" of the manufacturing industry in our province will continue for some time。At present, the "bottleneck" that restricts the sustainable and healthy development of manufacturing industry in our province is mainly in the two aspects of operating costs and business environment。It is suggested that our province should study and analyze the real cost of the real economy in our province, learn from the experience of our brothers and cities, and take more resolute and effective measures to reduce the administrative cost, financing cost and tax burden of enterprises as soon as possible。同时，It is suggested that the macro-aspect should shift the focus of supply-side structural reform and innovation-driven work to the enterprise level，First, efforts should be made to stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises to run their own research and development institutions, industrial research institutes and pilot test platforms;Second, take "deleveraging" as the core goal of "deleveraging";The third is to closely focus on the main line of service entity enterprises，We will promote the building of a service-oriented government，Optimize service process，Foster a sound business environment。
(Contributed by Modern Logistics Research Institute of Guangdong Province, Operation Monitoring Division)