In June 2017, the Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (key enterprise PMI) was 51.0, up 0 from the previous month.1 percentage point (see Figure 1), remain in the expansion range;Among the five weight indexes, the delivery time index fell sharply to 48.1, indicating economic uncertainty;But the new orders index, inventories of raw materials index and employment index rose, indicating that business confidence is stronger, and manufacturing companies are entering the peak sales season (see chart 2).。Overall, the industrial economy of our province will maintain steady growth, but economic uncertainties still need to be closely watched。
Figure 1 PMI trend chart of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to June 2017
The production index (volume of production) is 52.2, down 0 from the previous month.Five percentage points。This month's production index fell from last month, indicating that the production of manufacturing enterprises in our province increased from last month, but the growth rate fell。
The new orders index (product orders) was 52.1, up 0 from the previous month.Three percentage points。The new orders index has picked up for two consecutive months, indicating that the new orders of manufacturing enterprises in our province are better, which is related to the traditional sales season of manufacturing enterprises。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.3, up 0. 0 from the previous month.8 percentage points, back to the line of growth and contraction, indicating that the inventory of raw materials is increasing。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 50.4, up 1 from the previous month.6 percentage points, related to the increase in new orders to arrange production。
The supplier delivery time index is 48.1, down 1 from the previous month.Seven percentage points。The supplier delivery time index fell below the boom-bust line for two consecutive months, and supplier delivery times were shorter。Under the premise that the social logistics capacity and supplier capacity have not been greatly improved, it may be related to the lack of busy economic activities。
Figure 2 Trend chart of PMI sub-indices of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to June 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of PMI of key enterprises in Guangdong Province from June 2016 to June 2017
In June 2017, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.9, up 1 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 52.3, down 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 51.5, down 1 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 49.0, down 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 49.2, down 1 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 53.0, up 2 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for pharmaceutical manufacturing is 50.7, unchanged from the previous month;The Forest paper purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 50.8, up 2 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Provincial PMI index expert, professor Chen Hongyu of the Provincial Party School pointed out that in June, the production and sales of manufacturing enterprises in our province are relatively prosperous, and the PMI index rose slightly from 0 last month.1 percentage point to 51.0, basically out of the first two months of a number of sub-indicators downward "micro adjustment" process。First, the production index remained at 52 in June.High of 2;New orders, new export orders and import orders rose 0. 0 per cent each from the previous month.3个、1.4个和1.1 percentage point, the market confidence of enterprises significantly increased。Second, the new orders index in June (52.1) and production index (52.2) The difference is only 0.1 percentage point, the total supply and demand of the manufacturing market has been basically balanced, and the conditions for market clearing have gradually met。Third, the provincial employee index and purchase price index rebounded sharply this month.6个和1.5 percentage points, the distribution index and finished goods inventory index fell sharply 1.7个和3.9 percentage points, indicating that most industrial enterprises have been increasing employees and expanding procurement, the original inventory of finished goods is being shipped, and the speed of logistics in the whole society is also accelerating。Fourth, in June, the PMI indices of major manufacturing cities such as Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Huizhou and Zhuhai were on the line of growth and contraction, supporting the overall situation of the manufacturing industry in our province。These situations show that the development momentum of the manufacturing industry in our province is still continuing。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that the improvement of manufacturing production and sales in June in our province is related to endogenous factors such as enterprises adhering to innovation-driven, increasing structural adjustment and transformation, increasing new production capacity, new formats, and new product cultivation, and is also related to external factors such as the recovery of supply and demand in the international market and the recovery of manufacturing in developed countries。Chen Hongyu believes that for manufacturing enterprises, it is particularly important to understand the new changes in domestic and foreign markets and seize market opportunities while continuing to focus on cultivating new drivers and new vitality。It is suggested that the macro aspect aims at the reality of manufacturing industry in our province，It will help enterprises to improve product quality, enhance product competitiveness and enhance market analysis ability，As an important part of the supply-side structural reform in our province，On the one hand, we support enterprises to seize international opportunities，Expand overseas market share;On the other hand, enterprises are encouraged to focus on the domestic market, which has a large space for development，To improve the ability of enterprises to use domestic demand and guide domestic demand。
(Contributed by Modern Logistics Research Institute of Guangdong Province, Operation Monitoring Division)