In September 2017, the Guangdong manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 52.8, up 1 from the previous month.9 percentage points (see Figure 1), the five weight indexes show a "four up and one down" trend, that is, except for the supplier delivery time index, the other four weight indexes appear 1.Growth of more than 5 percentage points, and all are on the line between growth and contraction (see table)。The jump in the index this month was mainly affected by the superposition of factors such as "more days of shutdown and production in many places due to the typhoon in August and a lower base" and "more enterprises rushed to work during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in October"。On the whole, the trend of continued expansion of the manufacturing PMI index in our province has not changed, and the overall stable and stable trend of the industrial economy has not changed, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to the problems and difficulties in the production and operation of manufacturing enterprises, effectively implement the "real economy Ten" policies and measures, and be alert to economic downside risks。The details are as follows:
Figure 1Trend chart of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to September 2017
The production index (volume of production) is 54.9, up 2 from the previous month.3 percentage points, up 1 percentage point from last year.Four percentage points。This month's production index rebounded sharply from the previous month, mainly due to the impact of a strong typhoon in our province last month, many places to stop production for many days, the base is relatively low。However, judging from the production situation of enterprises this year, the production of manufacturing enterprises has maintained a continuous expansion trend。
The new orders index (product orders) was 54.6, up 2 from the previous month.Nine percentage points, the highest since the data began。Among them, the new export orders index was 52.2, up 1 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。It indicates that the new orders of enterprises are good, and both internal and external demand orders are increased。
The raw materials inventory index was 52.1, up 1 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。The increase in the inventory index of raw materials this month is related to the rush to work before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 50.3, up 1 from the previous month.Five percentage points, back on the line。
The supplier delivery time index is 49.6, down 0. 0 from the previous month.One percentage point。The index has been near the line of growth and contraction for nearly two months, indicating that supplier delivery times are relatively stable。
Figure 2Trend chart of manufacturing PMI sub-index of Guangdong Province from January 2013 to September 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from September 2016 to September 2017
In September 2017, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 57.0, up 2 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 52.6, up 1 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 53.7, down 0 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 46.7, down 0 from the previous month.2 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 50.9, up 2 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for auto manufacturing came in at 58.9, up 8 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 59.7, up 10 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The Forest paper purchasing managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5, down 1 from the previous month.Four percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee and a special expert on the interpretation of the provincial PMI index, believes that the Guangdong manufacturing PMI index in September rose sharply last month.Nine percentage points, 52.8, the 19th consecutive month above the line of expansion and contraction, and the highest point since May 2011。This month, the provincial PMI index and its sub-indexes have the following characteristics: First, 9 of the 11 sub-indexes are on the line of growth and contraction, an increase of two items over the previous month;Second, the production index and the new orders index, which have the largest influence on the PMI value, jumped 2 percent this month compared with the previous month.3个和2.Nine points, already at 54.9和54.6 high level, and showed a rare high level of production and sales equilibrium;Third, the "three major orders" index of new orders, new export orders and backlogged orders rebounded simultaneously, and the import index and purchase volume index were also at 53.4和55.The high level of 1 indicates that the recovery of domestic and foreign markets has been relatively stable, and manufacturing enterprises are more optimistic about the market。
Chen Hongyu thinks，In September, the development trend of manufacturing industry in our province improved comprehensively，Both with the recent macro "real economy ten" policy measures related，It is also related to the innovation-driven and structural transformation of the manufacturing industry in our province in recent years，It shows that our province's manufacturing industry has formed a certain quantity and quality of new momentum，The ability of enterprises to withstand pressure and seize new opportunities in the market has been significantly enhanced。
Chen Hongyu pointed out，Practice proves，Since this year, the basic ideas and measures of promoting the manufacturing industry in our province to accelerate the adjustment of structure, quality and efficiency are effective，Insist on not changing the channel，We will continue to implement the policies and measures of the provincial Party Committee and the provincial government to support the real economy in reducing costs，Continue to increase investment in major industrial projects in the industrial sector，We will continue to enhance our market analysis and development capabilities，Stabilize the target market share of the enterprise。Meanwhile, the purchasing price index for manufacturing climbed above 60 in September.5, the PMI index of the automobile manufacturing industry and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry also increased by 8 percent from the previous month.7个和10.1 percent, should also pay close attention to prevent possible high prices and costs and industry differentiation, affecting the overall coordinated development of the province's manufacturing industry。
(Contributed by Asia-Pacific Economic Index Research Center, Guangdong Modern Logistics Research Institute, Operations Monitoring Division)